But our collective efforts must keep evolving until learning after high school prepares graduates to thrive economically.
The United States is edging toward 60 percent of working-age adults having college degrees or credentials with labor market value—a milestone set by Lumina Foundation and like-minded leaders 17 years ago to meet the growing economic needs of the nation and its people.
The movement that advanced this goal of educating more Americans won no widespread acclaim, yet it sparked a momentous mindset shift among state and college leaders who were at the time mainly focused on enrollment growth. As a result of also emphasizing completion of degrees, certificates, and other credentials, the percentage of U.S. adults with quality education or training after high school went from 37.9 percent in 2008 to 54.9 percent by 2023, the most recent year of available statistics for A Stronger Nation, Lumina’s online data visualization for tracking progress.
Today, Americans’ rising concerns about how to pay for college—and whether to commit time and money to pursuing bachelor’s degrees—jeopardizes the nation’s progress.
Education leaders and policymakers place the country’s economic prosperity at risk if they ignore or fail to address urgent calls for change. At Lumina, we will continue tracking progress toward the 60 percent goal beyond 2025 while setting a new course that focuses on the benefits of learning. A new long-term goal will guide our work with business, governmental, and nonprofit partners in ways that respond more directly to societal needs and concerns. As a private foundation with an established leadership model, we will again take the long view and marshal support for change.
We believe that earning a college degree or other credential of value remains an essential path toward transforming lives and communities. We want to ensure that colleges meaningfully contribute to economic fairness, informed citizenship, and equity in education, regardless of an individual’s race, ethnicity, income, or geography. The nation must redesign learning systems to better meet the needs of today’s college students. These students are more likely than in the past to be Hispanic, Latino, and Black, come from low-income families, work to support themselves and their families, live in distressed areas, and struggle to pay bills and secure healthcare, housing, and transportation.
So, stay tuned. On March 4, we will share the new goal, a plan and rationale, and initial examples of how we will work.
To inform thinking, we examined what we learned on the “Road to 60” and took the lay of the land. We collaborated with Hattaway Communications, a communications research firm, to speak with our core audiences—policymakers and grantee organizations—and everyday people to understand their thoughts on higher education.
We learned that Americans wholeheartedly embrace the value of practical, shorter-term credentials that lead directly to jobs in fields such as health care, IT, and the building trades. Nonetheless, as we noted last year, short-term credential value dipped in 2022 (and remained stable in 2023), signaling a need to scrutinize the programs that often substitute for associate and bachelor’s programs. A challenge we face today—and why we believe tracking credential value matters—is helping students understand which programs lead to good jobs and which do not.
Increasingly, parents and students are also raising questions about the value of bachelor’s degrees, viewing higher education as just another rigged system.
In our exploration, we went beyond the dismal polling showing an erosion of public confidence in higher education. We found the term people associated most with colleges and universities was “expensive.” Seventy-eight percent of the more than 2,000 adults in a nationally representative Hattaway survey highlighted this concern about affordability, swamping the view of these institutions as “valuable,” which was cited by one-third of respondents. At the same time, people we asked said having a bachelor’s degree can evoke feelings of confidence (51 percent), empowerment (38 percent), and optimism (34 percent).
Six of every 10 people (58 percent) said Americans’ quality of life is worsening. More significant majorities said people who go to college are essential to improving life in the United States (72 percent), in local communities (68 percent), for themselves and their families (65 percent), and for other people (63 percent). That’s a beacon of hope—not just a glimmer.
Not as many people as you would think, based on the ubiquity of bad headlines about soaring tuition and fees, pay attention to the negative vibes. Americans are mostly upbeat, believing a college education increases opportunity, gives people control of their futures, leads to meaningful work, and contributes to overall well-being. People agreed that more college graduates with bachelor’s degrees could build a skilled workforce, expand the middle class, and create more economically prosperous communities.
We think that is a good place to start a new conversation about the future.
Jamie Merisotis is president and chief executive of Lumina Foundation, an independent, private foundation in Indianapolis committed to making opportunities for learning beyond high school available to all.