Here’s why states betting on certificates to boost attainment might be a losing wager
A recent visit to the Santa Anita racetrack taught me a surprising lesson—not about horse racing, but about the seductive power of a “clever” idea.
I’m not a gambler by nature, but I am a data guy. So, I felt compelled to make a bet. Lacking knowledge of the horses, their jockeys, or the track conditions, I crafted a simple and seemingly clever strategy: I’d bet on every horse to win in the race with the fewest horses. That way, I was bound to pick the winner and minimize the cost. And, lo and behold, I did pick a winner. But I still lost money.
That’s the trap of cleverness without understanding the whole picture.
This lesson doesn’t just apply to racetracks—it’s just as relevant to education policy and how states approach growing educated populations. A state can boost its overall attainment rate simply by increasing the number of short-term educational certificates colleges award. It’s a neat, nimble solution, right? But, like my racetrack strategy, it may not pay off.
The 2023–2024 Undergraduate Degree Earners Report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows why. Of the 525,215 people who earned a certificate, nearly 30 percent already had a college degree or certificate. That means the additional credentials didn’t add to the state’s tally of newly credentialed residents.
The report, released earlier this month, shows that 36.4 percent of bachelor’s and 28.4 percent of associate degree holders returned to earn a certificate. Meanwhile, 35.2 percent of certificate holders earned another certificate.
In fact, more than a quarter of all awards now go to students who already have a credential. That share has grown from 25.3 percent to 26.3 percent over the past four years. For the third year in a row, the number of learners earning certificates hit a 10-year high, with strong gains among both first-time certificate earners (+12.6 percent) and returning learners with prior awards (+8.0 percent). The proportion of first-time completers earning certificates has also increased—from 11.3 percent in the 2014–15 academic year to 15.4 percent in 2023–24.
Regionally, the Midwest and South have seen continued growth in these add-on certificates, while trends in the Northeast and West have been more modest over the past decade.
Many of these learners are older adults, returning to upskill in response to a shifting labor market. That’s a good thing—and an essential role colleges play. But it’s not the same as increasing the number of people with a first college credential, which is what attainment rates measure.
(We at Lumina recently set a goal for the nation that by 2040, 75 percent of adults in the U.S. labor force will have college degrees or other credentials of value leading to economic prosperity.)
These trends reveal something important: certificates are growing, but they are not all reaching new students. They serve a vital purpose in helping this country’s workforce adapt and advance, but they don’t necessarily mean more people are achieving college-level attainment for the first time.
A clever approach—targeted, flexible, and quick to implement—can be appealing. But as the racetrack reminded me, winning strategies require more than cleverness. They require understanding. Before betting on short-term credentials as the solution to low attainment, policymakers must ask: Who is earning these certificates? Are they first-time students or experienced learners coming back?
The distinction matters.